

First of all, congratulations to President-Elect Donald Trump on his election victory on November 5th 2024.
Let's recap on the effects his policies might have on US Immigration.
Trump’s proposed changes would aim to switch focus from indirect family-based to skilled and employment-based immigration, which many commentators see as a positive step, as it encourages the economy to flourish in a defined way.
Family-based Immigration
Currently, family-based immigration allows for the sponsorship of spouses, children, parents, and siblings of U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Trump's proposals could limit family sponsorship to only immediate family members, such as spouses and minor children, while removing eligibility for extended family like siblings and adult children.
Trump has been a vocal critic of “chain migration,” a term he uses to describe the sponsorship of extended family members by immigrants already in the U.S. He argues that chain migration can lead to unintended, unregulated population increases.
It is possible that he would either cap family-based immigration or remove the ability for indirect family members, such as siblings and adult children. Trump might push for stricter caps on family-based green cards. Currently, family-based visas account for a significant portion of all U.S. green cards issued annually. Reducing the number of visas available to family members could lead to fewer admissions and longer wait times for family reunification.
Employment-based Immigration
Trump has previously proposed a point-based immigration system, similar to those in Canada or Australia. This would prioritise immigrants based on factors like education, work experience, language proficiency, and other skills. In a point-based system, visas would go to high-skilled workers rather than more indirect family members of current U.S. residents.
Combatting Illegal Immigration
Trump has consistently pushed for a physical border wall with Mexico. Another term would likely see renewed efforts to expand and reinforce physical barriers, though funding and logistical challenges remain. He could promote more advanced surveillance technology, additional border patrol agents, and stricter measures at entry points to monitor and curb illegal crossings.
Asylum Policies and Refugee Programs
Under Trump, asylum eligibility requirements were tightened. He could further restrict access to asylum, especially for individuals from certain countries, as well as expedite processing that may lead to more rejections and deportations. In his first term, refugee admission caps hit historic lows, and a second term would likely continue this trend. Programs supporting asylum-seekers and refugees may face further cutbacks or eliminations.
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)
Trump previously attempted to end DACA, the Obama-era program protecting young undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. A second term could renew efforts to eliminate DACA, placing hundreds of thousands of "Dreamers" at risk of deportation. Without the support of the White House, DACA recipients could face ongoing legal battles to maintain work permits and residency.
Enhanced Enforcement and Deportations
A return to a “zero tolerance” approach might mean a rise in deportations, including for those with minor legal infractions. Trump’s first term saw significant ICE enforcement, and a second could lead to even stricter deportation measures. Trump previously threatened to withhold federal funds from sanctuary cities (which limit local cooperation with federal immigration authorities). A second term could renew these attempts, potentially pushing cities to alter their stances on immigration enforcement.
Public Charge Rule and Welfare Restrictions
Trump previously attempted to enforce a more expansive “public charge” rule, denying visas to immigrants deemed likely to rely on government assistance. Though courts blocked the rule, a second term could see another attempt to implement it. Trump could expand measures that limit immigrants' access to healthcare, housing, and other forms of government support, which could dissuade legal immigration among low-income individuals.
Immigration and National Security
Trump implemented travel bans targeting certain Muslim-majority countries during his first term. Another term could include more travel restrictions on additional countries, especially if framed around national security.
There could be increased scrutiny for visa applications from countries deemed high-risk, with more extensive background checks and possibly heightened security clearances.
Pathway to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants
Trump has typically opposed broad pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. In a second term, chances for bipartisan immigration reform would likely be limited, as Trump would prioritise enforcement over integration.
Effects on U.S. Economy and Workforce
Industries such as agriculture, construction, and technology, which often depend on immigrant labor, could face labor shortages if work visas are further restricted. Labor shortages in low-wage sectors, combined with tightened immigration policies, could drive up consumer costs in industries like agriculture and hospitality.
International Relations and Diplomatic Impact
Strict immigration measures, particularly if border security is heightened, may strain relationships with neighbouring countries like Mexico. Diplomatic tensions could emerge around shared responsibility for migration issues. A Trump presidency could further shape global perceptions of the U.S. as less welcoming to immigrants, potentially impacting international tourism, student exchanges, and collaboration in global initiatives involving migration.
However, as stated above, many commentators see it as a logical intervention to ensure skilled immigrants are able to migrate versus indirect, unskilled and undocumented immigrants, and that the US economy as a whole might better served in doing so.
Trump Wins 2024 Election
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